Felgenhauer Doesn't Have to Eat His Hat

Remembering Russian-Georgian war happened in August 2008... Almost a year passed since then but we have more questions than answers and there is no real peace between Russia and Georgia yet. A part of the Georgian territory is occupied by Russia, more than twenty thousand Georgian refugees can't return their home and Russia has one more bunch of claims to Georgia. Media, experts and people are trying to predict whether there will be the second Russian-Georgian war in 2009 or won't...

As for predictions, I keep in mind well-known Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer's forecast which had been made at least two month before the war.

"Decision to start war against Georgia has been already made in Moscow", said Felgenhauer in June 2008. "The war may begin from the end of August to the end of this autumn".

Most of experts expressed doubt about Felgengauer's opinion considering the war was unlikely to start.

"I think this statement pursues domestic political goals and is far from reality. Actually an expert mustn't overstep the limits determined for him and mustn't make irresponsible statements. Otherwise he has to eat his hat as is customary in the West", commented Konstantin Zatulin, Russian deputy and the CIS Institute director close to Kremlin and known for his aggressive anti-Georgian position.

After the war had begun Pavel Felgenhauer said the following:
"A decision was made for the war to start in August. The war would have happened regardless of what the Georgians did. Whether they responded to the provocations or not, there would have been an invasion of Georgia".

It could be a very interesting feeling to forecast such an event. You don't want the war because it is a war and you do want it to prove your forecast true... Funny...